A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
